Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Barack Obama

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Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama was one of the most widely covered and studied developments of the 2008 presidential campaign. Winfrey has been described as the most influential woman in the world^[1][2][3] for her impact on the culture and her proven record as a taste-maker and trend-setter, and there was much interest in whether that influence could translate politically since she had never before endorsed a candidate . Winfrey first endorsed Obama in September 2006 before he had even declared himself a candidate. In May 2007 Winfrey made her first endorsement of candidate Obama, and in December 2007, she made her first campaign appearances for him. Two economists estimate that Winfrey’s endorsement was worth over a million votes in the Democratic primary race^[4] and that without it, Obama would have lost the nomination^[5].

Contents 1 Winfrey’s endorsement power 2 Endorsing Barack Obama 3 Fundraising 4 Campaign appearances 5 Impact 5.1 Over one million votes 5.2 Increased viability 5.3 Polls 5.4 Political commentary 6 References

[edit] Winfrey’s endorsement power

The power of Winfrey’s endorsement has been most consistently measured by the spike in sales that products receive when she endorses them on her show, most notably, books selected for Oprah's Book Club.

Business Week stated:

Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of the Oprah phenomenon is how outsized her power is compared with that of other market movers. Some observers suggest that Jon Stewart of Comedy Central's The Daily Show could be No. 2. Other proven arm-twisters include Fox News's Sean Hannity, National Public Radio's Terry Gross, radio personality Don Imus, and CBS' 60 Minutes. But no one comes close to Oprah's clout: Publishers estimate that her power to sell a book is anywhere from 20 to 100 times that of any other media personality.^[6]

The power of Winfrey’s endorsement is also credited with making Dr. Phil, who got his start appearing on Winfrey’s show, into a household name, hit talk show host, and the author of multiple best-sellers.

Winfrey's influence reaches far beyond pop-culture and into unrelated industries where many believe she has the power to cause enormous market swings and radical price changes with a single comment. During a show about mad cow disease with Howard Lyman (aired on April 16, 1996), Winfrey exclaimed, "It has just stopped me cold from eating another burger!" Texas cattlemen sued her and Lyman in early 1998 for "false defamation of perishable food" and "business disparagement", claiming that Winfrey's remarks subsequently sent cattle prices tumbling, costing beef producers some USD$12 million. On February 26, after a trial spanning over two months in an Amarillo, Texas court in the thick of cattle country, a jury found Winfrey and Lyman were not liable for damages.

[edit] Endorsing Barack Obama

Winfrey first revealed herself to be a fan of Barack Obama in the November 2004 issue of O-The Oprah magazine. She explained that she seldom talks to politicians because she doesn’t consider herself political, but that Obama felt like something beyond politics. Then on September 25, 2006, Winfrey appeared on Larry King Live and was asked about a fan who started a campaign to get Winfrey to run for president. Winfrey advised the fan to “take all your energy, and put it in Barack Obama”. Winfrey explained that Obama was her favourite senator and she hoped he would run for president. Then on October 19, 2006, Winfrey interviewed Obama and his wife on her show and reiterated the endorsement that she had previously made on Larry King and promoted his book The Audacity of Hope. Winfrey explained that she would be on the air for several more years, so if he ever decided to run, she would hope he would announce it on her show. Obama’s appearance on Oprah caused his book to reach the #1 spot on both Amazon.com’s and the New York Time’s bestseller list^[7]. Immediately following Winfrey’s two endorsements, Time magazine put Obama on their Oct 23, 2006 cover with the capation "Why Barack Obama could be the next president".

Obama eventually decided not to go on any show to announce his candidacy, and with Obama officially becoming a candidate for president in 2008, Winfrey decided not to interview him or any of the candidates during the campaign because as a vocal Obama supporter, she could not be objective.

In May 2007, Winfrey once again appeared on Larry King Live and was asked if her endorsement of Obama still applied. She replied “of course” and explained that what Obama stood for was worth her going out on a limb for. When King asked Winfrey if there was a woman side of her that would lean towards Obama’s opponent, then front-runner Hillary Clinton, Winfrey explained that she had great respect for Senator Clinton, and that her endorsement of Obama did not imply that she was against anyone else.

In June 2008, when Obama secured the Democratic nomination, Winfrey told Entertainment Tonight:

“

I'm euphoric, I've been doing the happy dance all day. I'm so proud of Barack and [his wife] Michelle Obama and what this means for all of us ... the new possibilities for our country. And if he wants me to, I'm ready to go door to door.[8]

”

In late August 2008, Winfrey attended the Democratic convention and reacted emotionally to Obama’s speech, telling reporters "I've never experienced anything like that. I cried my eyelashes off." Elaborating further, Winfrey explained "I woke up this morning and I went to Google and I googled the entire Martin Luther King speech because like most Americans I, you know, you listen to the 'I Have a Dream' part. In the earlier part of the speech, he talks about the promise of democracy. And I think that today that promise was fulfilled in a way that I never imagined in my lifetime."^[9] Winfrey also told reporters:

“

And what I saw with Barack Obama was something that was transcendent and I felt transformational for me as a human being and for this country. And I only pray in the deepest part of my being that America will rise to this moment. And I feel that what he was able to offer us as individual citizens and as a united country was something that we have never seen before. I really, I think it's the most powerful thing I've ever experienced. I often wondered what it would be like to sit and listen to Lincoln speak or Roosevelt speak or what it would have been like to have been old enough to understand what Martin Luther King was saying 45 years ago today. And what he did brought that home in a way that I could never have imagined[10]

”

[edit] Fundraising

In the Fall of 2007 Winfrey held a fundraiser for Obama at her California home and raised several million dollars. In October 2008 Winfrey hosted a second fundraiser for Obama, this time in Chicago^[11].

[edit] Campaign appearances

In the fall of 2007, Obama was considered a long shot, an absolute outsider in the race for the Democratic Party nomination for president of the United States and was still considered unlikely to win the Iowa caucus^[12], and polls showed him losing the black vote to Clinton. ^[13] In late November 2007, the Obama campaign announced that Winfrey would be campaigning for Obama for a series of rallies in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.^[14]. Even before Winfrey appeared thousands of Iowans have flocked to Obama’s campaign offices office, and 1,385 signed up as volunteers to score tickets to see Winfrey’s Iowa appearance.^[15] The Columbia, South Carolina event on December 9, 2007 drew a crowd of nearly 30,000, the largest for any political event of 2007.^[16][17]

Newsweek’s Howard Fineman reviewed Winfrey’s speech in South Carolina:

“

Oprah riffed her way through an eloquent paean to the need for a change of leadership in America. "Dr. King talked about the dream," she said. "Now we get to vote that dream into reality. You gotta step out of your box!" she said. "We can dream America anew!"…She is astonishing, truly. The woman was on her maiden campaign trail voyage, and yet she already she was better—more cogent, more effective, more convincing—than anyone out there.[18]

”

[edit] Impact

[edit] Over one million votes

Using a novel methodology, Craig Garthwaite and Tim Moore, economists at the University of Maryland, College Park concluded that Winfrey's endorsement of Obama not only netted him over a million votes in the Democratic primary season but also decided the election.

"It does appear to have been a decisive, if not a deciding, factor," explained Garthwaite.

Garthwaite and Moore matched sales of Winfrey's "O" magazine and the spike in sales of her book club picks to Obama's votes in the Democratic primary. After controlling for a large range of confounding factors such as the fact that both Obama and Winfrey are popular with African Americans, Garthwaite and Moore showed that votes for Obama spiked in precisely the same geographic areas where Winfrey is the most popular. By applying the same methodology to Obama's 2004 Senate race, when he did not have Winfrey's endorsement, they found no relationship between Obama votes and Winfrey popularity in Illinois; the relationship only emerged after the endorsement, suggesting that Winfrey’s endorsement had caused the spike in Obama’s vote total in those counties.

Garthwaite and Moore also showed that the connection is not because people who read women's magazines preferred Obama to Clinton. Just the opposite, Obama got less support where women's magazines such as Self and People are popular. After controlling for racial demographics, the economists also found no relationship between the popularity of Ebony magazine, whose readership is largely African American, and support for Obama.

In addition to getting Obama over a million votes, the researchers found that Winfrey's support boosted campaign contributions to him in those counties where she is most popular. ^[19] They found that Winfrey's biggest effect was in caucus states like Iowa.^[20]

[edit] Increased viability

Another study suggests that Winfrey’s endorsement may have also had indirect benefits for Obama. Researchers Andrew Pease and Paul R. Brewer of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee conducted an experiment in which some subjects were exposed to news of Winfrey’s endorsement and others weren’t. They found that those who had such exposure were more likely to vote for Obama, if only because they thought her endorsement made Obama more electable; for such voters Winfrey’s endorsement was important for strategic reasons. The researchers concluded that when evaluating the impact of celebrity endorsements, one must also consider “ subtler effects, such as those on viability assessments.” ^[21]

[edit] Polls

A CBS poll found that a third of all Americans claimed that most people they know would be more inclined to vote for Obama because of Winfrey’s endorsement.^[22]. A study by the Pew Research Centre found that Winfrey’s campaign appearances had dramatically increased Obama’s visibility, especially among African-Americans.^[23] One reason Winfrey’s endorsement was useful in helping Obama compete with Senator Clinton was because as of December 2007 (when Winfrey first began campaigning) Winfrey was the one woman in the world more admired than Hillary Clinton among American women^[24]

[edit] Political commentary

“There’s no doubt that Oprah could tip a close presidential election if she strongly backed one candidate,” predicted psychologist James Houran^[25] In the May 2007 issue of Newsmax, political analyst Dick Morris predicted Winfrey’s endorsement would have an important impact:

“

Oprah’s endorsement is particularly important as a black woman, since she will provide millions of African-American women with guidance on their personal decision about whether to back the first of their gender or the first of their race. But as a statement to all women, a decision by Oprah to endorse Obama would be a huge rejection of Hillary Clinton. While she will likely play such an endorsement as reflecting more of a love for Obama than any dislike for Hillary, women voters are sure to draw the conclusion that there is something flawed in Hillary that made Oprah turn away from her candidacy. I think Oprah’s support will not only be important, it will be more important than any other political endorsement this year.

”

Later Dick Morris would see significance in the fact that Winfrey campaigned for Obama in December, and Iowa voted right after Christmas:

“

Oprah is from the world of Christmas -- mystical, cheerful, appealing, even beguiling. She is no policy wonk but is cast well as a black, female St. Nick bringing joy to the world. Her endorsement softens Obama, wraps him up, and makes of him a Christmas present to America.[26]

”

“Because Oprah has such a reputation as a tastemaker, I think her early endorsement forced people to take Obama’s candidacy seriously,” explained Dr. Mark Anthony Neal, author, pop culture critic and Duke University professor. “It made Obama more than a ‘Black’ candidate. Also, given Oprah’s championing of women’s issues, her decision not to support Hillary (Clinton) struck a chord for early undecideds... Obama’s people understood that much of the Black electorate in the South was made up of women, and Oprah’s campaigning with the Obamas, particularly in South Carolina, helped give the campaign some momentum^[27]”

In April 2008, The New York Times editorial board wrote:

“

If Barack Obama is elected president, a good chunk of credit should go to Oprah Winfrey. Her early and enthusiastic endorsement of Senator Obama – and her heavily attended appearances with him in Iowa and South Carolina – played a big role in winning over bit parts of Middle America to the Obama cause. Ms. Winfrey has since faded into the background of the campaign, but her impact persists. [28]

”

“Oprah's unprecedented mid-December endorsement of Obama sent a clear signal to her mixed-race female-dominated audience that they should feel as comfortable having Obama on their living room television screens for the nightly newscast as they do having her there during late-afternoon coffee talk,” noted Thomas F. Schaller of Salon.com.^[29]

[edit] References

v • d • e Barack Obama Presidency Presidential transition  · Inauguration Political activities 2004 Democratic National Convention · Illinois Senate career · U.S. Senate election in Illinois, 2004 · U.S. Senate career · Presidential primary campaign, 2008 · Obama–Biden 2008 · Electoral history · Political positions Books written Dreams from My Father · The Audacity of Hope Speeches The Audacity of Hope · A More Perfect Union · Change Has Come to America Life Early life and career · Public image Family Michelle Obama · Barack Obama, Sr. · Ann Dunham · Lolo Soetoro (stepfather) · Maya Soetoro-Ng (half-sister) · Madelyn and Stanley Dunham (grandparents) · Extended family