Brinkmanship
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Brinkmanship is the practice of pushing a dangerous situation to the verge of disaster in order to achieve the most advantageous outcome. It occurs in international politics, foreign policy, labour relations, and (in contemporary settings) in military strategy involving the threatened use of nuclear weapons.
This maneuver of pushing a situation to the brink succeeds by forcing the opposition to back down and make concessions. This might be achieved through diplomatic maneuvers by creating the impression that one is willing to use extreme methods rather than concede. During the Cold War, the threat of nuclear force was often used as such an escalating measure. Adolf Hitler also used brinkmanship during his rise to power.
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[edit] Origins
Brinkmanship is the ostensible escalation of threats in order to achieve one's aims. Originally the term brinkmanship was coined by Secretary of State John Foster Dulles under the Eisenhower administration, during the Cold War. Eventually, the threats involved might become so huge as to be unmanageable at which point both sides are likely to back down. This was the case during the Cold War, as the escalation of threats of nuclear war is mutually suicidal.
[edit] Dangers
The dangers of brinkmanship as a political or diplomatic tool can be understood as a slippery slope: In order for brinkmanship to be effective, the threats used are continuously escalated. However, a threat is not worth anything unless it is credible; at some point, the aggressive party may have to back up its claim to prove its commitment to action.
The chance of things sliding out of control is also often used as a tool of brinkmanship, because it can provide credibility to an otherwise incredible threat. For example, Kennedy was not willing to start a nuclear war over the Cuban Missile Crisis, but he was willing to take actions that risked the accidental start of a nuclear war. Pioneering game theorist Thomas Schelling called this "the threat that leaves something to chance"[1] -- if Kennedy had said "If you station your warheads in Cuba, we start a shooting war and exterminate human life on this planet" nobody would have believed him, but instead Kennedy ordered a naval quarantine. Until the crisis ended, there was a continual risk of the accidental outbreak of nuclear war, for example, when an unknown Soviet anti-aircraft battery commander shot down an American U-2 surveillance plane without authorization. With U.S. forces on high alert, this single, unauthorized action could have prompted an attack on the Cuban bases, which might have quickly escalated into nuclear exchanges. In summary, Kennedy's actions created an ongoing elevated risk of an accidental nuclear exchange, with the hope that the Soviets would back down from positioning missiles in Cuba in order to reduce the risk Kennedy had created.
The British intellectual Bertrand Russell compared nuclear brinkmanship to the game of chicken.[2] The principle between the two is the same, to create immense pressure in a situation until one person or party backs down.
[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ Schelling, Thomas, The Strategy of Conflict, copyright 1960, 1980, Harvard University Press, ISBN 0674840313.
- ^ Russell, Bertrand W. (1959) Common Sense and Nuclear Warfare London: George Allen & Unwin, p30: "Since the nuclear stalemate became apparent, the governments of East and West have adopted the policy which Mr. Dulles calls 'brinksmanship.' This is a policy adapted from a sport which, I am told, is practiced by some youthful degenerates. This sport is called 'Chicken!'"
